Author
Greg Lefoe
greg.lefoe@agriculture.vic.gov.au
Agriculture Victoria
Bundoora
Coauthors
Cindy E. Hauser, Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Heidelberg, Australia
Libby Rumpff, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia
Abstract
Decisions to release or reject biocontrol agents proposed for introduction are difficult because they are often complex, deleterious impacts to non-target species may be irreversible, and the economic, social, and environmental consequences of poor decisions are potentially severe. Risk assessment is central to biocontrol agent introduction decisions as it helps to characterize uncertain consequences. However, risk assessment alone may not be sufficient to make an introduction decision. Risk assessment protocols may be too narrowly focused to consider the broader decision context, and to balance risks and benefits to competing values. Structured Decision Making (SDM) is the practical application of decision theory to complex decision problems. It provides frameworks, processes and decision support tools aimed at making better decisions. SDM has been used in fields such as conservation and natural resource management and has been proposed for classical biological control. We evaluate the utility of (1) an existing risk analysis framework, and (2) SDM, for biocontrol agent decisions. We consider the conditions for eliciting and quantifying expert opinion of the consequences of introducing a biocontrol agent. We use a prospective biocontrol agent, the leaf beetle Leptinotarsa texana, as a case study, and relevant examples from the literature to illustrate these processes. Finally, we make recommendations on the potential use of SDM in classical biological control of weeds.
keywords
decision-making
risk assessment
risk analysis
uncertainty
Highlights
Decisions to release or reject biocontrol agents proposed for introduction are often complex
Risk assessment alone may not be sufficient to make introduction decisions
Structured Decision Making may support more holistic biocontrol agent decisions under uncertainty